In 2015, China's domestic market demand for optical fiber and cable exceeded 200 million core kilometers, accounting for 55% of the global demand. It is really good news for Chinese demand at a time of low global demand. But doubts about whether demand for optical fiber and cable will continue to grow rapidly are stronger than before.
In 2008, the domestic optical fiber and cable market demand has exceeded 80 million core kilometers, far exceeding the market demand of the United States in the same year. At that time, many people were worried about future demand, and some even thought that demand had peaked and a turning point would come. At that time, I pointed out at a meeting that China's optical fiber and cable market demand will exceed 100 million core kilometers within two years. The financial crisis began to spread in the second half of 2008, and the atmosphere of concern filled the industry. What is the trend of China's optical fiber and cable development in the next few years? It is still a high-speed growth, or steady growth, or some decline.
But in fact, more than a year later, by the end of 2009, China's optical fiber and cable demand had reached 100 million core kilometers. After about six years, namely, by the end of 2015, China's optical fiber and cable demand reached 200 million core kilometers. Therefore, from 2008 to 2015 was not only shrinking, but rapid growth, and Chinese mainland market demand alone accounted for more than half of the global market demand. Today, some people question again, what is the situation of the future demand. Some people think that it is almost enough, and many domestic policies have been introduced accordingly, such as optical fiber to the home, the promotion and use of 4G, the demand seems to have reached the peak. So, the future of optical fiber and cable industry demand is a what kind of development trend, what to take as the basis for prediction. This is a common concern of many people in the industry, and has become an important basis for enterprises to think about their development strategies.
In 2010, China's car demand began to overtake the United States as the world's largest consumer of cars. But optical fiber and cable is not yet personal consumption, can be compared according to the situation of automobile consumption? On the surface, the two are different consumer products, but in fact, the demand for optical fiber and cable is completely related to human activities.
Fiber optic fiber to the home-where people sleep；
Fiber optic to the desktop- -the place where people work;
Fiber optic to the base station-People are somewhere between sleeping and working.
It can be seen that the demand for optical fiber and cable is not only related to people, but also related to the total population.Therefore, the demand for optical fiber and cable and per capital also has a correlation.
We can maintain that the demand for optical fiber and cable will remain high over the next decade.So where is the driving force for this persistently high demand?We think it can be manifested in the following four aspects:
1. Network upgrade.Mainly is the local network network upgrade, the current local network is difficult to adapt to the development and application of business, whether the network structure and coverage and demand are very different.Therefore, the transformation of the local network is the main impetus of the high optical fiber demand in the future;
2. Business development needs.The current business is mainly two major blocks, optical fiber to the home and enterprise network.In the next decade, the wide application of intelligent terminals (including fixed intelligent terminals and mobile intelligent terminals) and home intelligence is bound to promote more demand for optical fiber and cable.
3. Diversification of applications.With the widespread application of optical fiber and cable in the non-communication field, such as industrial industrial control, clean energy, urban intelligent information management system, disaster prevention and control and other fields, the demand for optical fiber and cable in the non-communication field is increasing rapidly.
4. Attract of foreign market to the Chinese market.Although this demand is not in China, it will indirectly induce the demand of Chinese optical fiber and cable enterprises in industrial development when they go to the international stage.
While market demand remains high, are there any risks in the future?The so-called risk is that the industry suddenly loses direction, or the huge demand suddenly disappears.We think this potential risk will exist, but it will not last long.It may exist in stages, appearing briefly in a year or two.Where does the risk mainly come from?On the one hand, it comes from the macroeconomic stability, that is, whether demand and consumption exist, or whether there is a large number.On the other hand, it comes from technological innovation, because the current terminal part largely depends on the development of technological innovation.Technological innovation will drive consumption, and after consumption, demand for the entire network capacity and applications will increase.
Therefore, it is certain that the demand for optical fiber and optical cable will actually exist over the next decade.But the fluctuations will still be affected by individual factors, including the macro economy and technology.Technology includes optical fiber technology, optical cable structure and installation, and that is, the transmission technology.
Post time: Sep-09-2022